5 Mistakes Every New Forex Trader Makes
Overleveraging, ignoring the spread, trading the news without context — and how to avoid each one.
Vera explains market-moving events and economic context with clarity, restraint, and a learner-first perspective.
Euro-area consumers raised their inflation expectations across all measured horizons in August, according to the European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey released September 18. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased to 3.0% from 2.9% in July. Three-year expectations rose to 2.9% from 2.7%, while five-year expectations increased to 2.5% from 2.4%. Expected economic growth remained at -1.2%, while the expected unemployment rate declined to 11.0% from 11.2%.
Oil extended its decline on September 18 as expectations of a limited Saudi supply disruption strengthened. Reuters reported Brent down about 2% at $102.53 a barrel and WTI at $100.04, marking a third consecutive session of declines. Saudi Arabia was working to restore roughly half of its East–West Pipeline capacity and had offered additional crude to Asian refiners, easing fears created by pipeline damage and disrupted Yanbu loadings. Uncertainty remains over the timetable for a complete restoration, while Strait of Hormuz risks continue to support a geopolitical premium.
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Iranian digital-asset exchange BitBank, its software developer and three associates of financier Babak Zanjani. Treasury said Zanjani used BitBank between June and July to facilitate transfers of hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of Bitcoin to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It also said Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority has used BitBank since June to transfer payments received to the Iranian government. The action extends U.S. sanctions enforcement into digital-asset infrastructure connected to Iran's financial networks.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, its highest level in 31 years, as policymakers continued to respond to inflation risks. The decision passed by a 7–2 vote, with Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting. Despite the increase, the yen weakened after the decision, with Reuters reporting USD/JPY around 157.1 and roughly 0.7% higher on the day. Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting press conference remains the next key source of guidance on the policy outlook.
U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 in the week ended September 12, below the 208,000 forecast in a Reuters poll. The four-week average declined to 203,250. Continuing claims fell by 39,000 to 1.730 million in the week ended September 5, while the insured-unemployment rate eased to 1.1%. The figures reinforce evidence of low layoffs after the Federal Reserve raised rates, although holiday-related seasonal volatility means the weekly decline may overstate underlying labour-market strength.
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6–3 vote, with three policymakers seeking an immediate increase to 4%. The MPC said UK inflation, already 3.1% in August, is likely to rise further as the Middle East conflict keeps energy costs elevated. It judged inflation risks more firmly tilted upward and signalled readiness to tighten if persistent energy volatility produces broader price and wage effects. The Bank also adopted a slower multi-year plan to unwind its remaining monetary-policy gilt holdings by 2034.
The Indian rupee recovered from an early move beyond 96 per dollar to close at 95.93, almost unchanged from Wednesday’s 95.9550 close. Reuters attributed the reversal to likely Reserve Bank of India intervention and inflows tied to a global equity-index rebalancing, while most Asian currencies weakened after the Fed hike. Traders also reported likely RBI sell/buy swaps, and the central bank’s open-market bond sale absorbed cash equivalent to nearly 0.2% of bank deposits. The RBI had not officially confirmed spot-market intervention.
Oil extended its decline as Saudi Arabia offered additional crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman, easing concern over disruption to its East–West Pipeline and Yanbu export hub. Reuters reported Brent down 1.03% at $104.74 and WTI down 0.81% at $101.60 at 08:01 UTC. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said flows could resume within days, but Saudi Arabia had not issued a restart timetable. Diesel markets remained tight, with European gasoil and U.S. ULSD recently settling at record highs.
The Indian rupee weakened past 96 per dollar for the first time in more than a month after the Federal Reserve raised rates. Reuters reported USD/INR at 96.08, up 0.1%, before four traders said state-run banks were selling dollars, most likely for the Reserve Bank of India. The suspected intervention came as higher oil prices and elevated global bond yields pressured the currency. The RBI had not confirmed any intervention, so the activity remains attributed to market participants.
The Federal Reserve unanimously raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, saying inflation remains elevated and the move supports a timelier return to 2%. September projections put the median policy rate at 4.1% at both end-2026 and end-2027, implying another increase this year. The Fed also raised its 2026 growth and inflation forecasts while lowering projected unemployment. Reuters observed the dollar up 0.3%, two-year yields flat and U.S. equities modestly higher after the decision.
The Federal Reserve unanimously raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, while September projections implied another increase this year. Chair Kevin Warsh said the economy had strengthened since June and inflation trends had shown little improvement, keeping price stability as the Fed's predominant focus. Markets turned more hawkish as his press conference ended: Reuters reported the dollar up 0.6%, the two-year Treasury yield six basis points higher and the S&P 500 down 0.7%.
Sweden’s centre-left opposition was poised to win the parliamentary election by the narrowest possible majority after 99% of votes were counted. Public broadcaster SVT projected 175 of the Riksdag’s 349 seats for parties led by Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, against 174 for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s governing bloc. Reuters reported that 26,169 votes separated the blocs at 16:47 UTC. Late domestic and overseas ballots were still being counted, leaving the final result and government formation pending.