Federal Reserve &amp; US Economy

Japan Services PMI Rises to 51.7 in October, Below Earlier Estimate

Japan's final S&P Global services purchasing managers' index for October 2026 came in at 51.7, compared with 51.3 in September and a flash estimate of 52.0. The 5 November release shows the services sector remained in expansion because the reading was above 50, although the final result was slightly weaker than the initial estimate. This is a separate services-sector release, not the already-reported October flash manufacturing survey or broader semiconductor-market sell-off. No immediate yen-price response was established from the sources checked.

USD/JPYNIKKEI 225

German Factory Orders Rebound 4.4% in September After August Slump

Germany's real new manufacturing orders rose 4.4% month on month in September 2026 on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, according to preliminary data released by Destatis on 5 November. The increase followed a revised 10.1% fall in August. September orders were 3.3% higher year on year. Automotive orders rose 10.5% month on month and machinery and equipment orders increased 8.3%; however, total orders in the third quarter were only 0.2% above the second quarter. Reuters reported a 4.8% consensus forecast, meaning the monthly rebound undershot that particular survey estimate. These figures concern September orders, not Germany's October PMI or third-quarter GDP.

EUR/USDEURO STOXX 50

Australia Trade Surplus Surges to A$2.83 Billion in September

Australia recorded a seasonally adjusted goods-trade surplus of A$2.826 billion in September 2026, up from A$184 million in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 5 November. Goods exports rose 2.3% month on month to A$48.434 billion, while goods imports fell 3.3% to A$45.609 billion. Lower imports of non-monetary gold and aircraft contributed to the reduction in imports, while mineral fuels and metals supported export growth. Investing.com reported the surplus exceeded a market expectation of about A$940 million. The trade-balance release is separate from Australia's household-spending, building-approvals and central-bank news.

AUD/USDAUD/JPY

US DOLLAR INDEXEUR/USDUS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD

US ISM Services PMI Slips to 54.5 in October as Orders Cool

The Institute for Supply Management services purchasing managers index fell to 54.5 in October 2026 from 54.9 the previous month, below a 54.8 consensus, according to the 4 November release shown on ForexFactory and FXStreet. The new-orders index decreased to 55.9 from 59.8, while the employment index improved to 51.4 from 50.1. Prices paid remained elevated at 73.0. The headline is still above 50, which indicates expansion rather than contraction.

Ireland Flash Inflation Rises to 4.0% in October as Energy Prices Surge

Ireland’s Central Statistics Office estimated on 3 November 2026 that harmonised consumer-price inflation rose to 4.0% year on year in October from 3.8% in September. Prices increased 0.5% month on month. Energy costs rose 18.3% over the year and 4.5% during October, while food prices were just 0.1% higher than a year earlier. Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food was estimated at 2.5% annually. These are Ireland’s preliminary harmonised inflation figures, not the euro-area October flash estimate, which was scheduled for 4 November.

EUR/USDEURO STOXX 50

HONG KONG 50 EQUITY INDEXUS DOLLAR / HONG KONG DOLLAR

Hong Kong Private-Sector PMI Returns to Expansion at 50.2 in October

Hong Kong's S&P Global private-sector purchasing managers' index rose to 50.2 in October 2026 from 49.2 in September, returning just above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Reporting on 4 November said new orders improved after two months of decline, including stronger orders from mainland China, while the pace of job cuts eased. However, business confidence for the year ahead reportedly fell to its lowest level in more than six years and input-price pressure intensified. This is a Hong Kong private-sector survey, not China's mainland manufacturing PMI.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLARAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN

Australia Household Spending Rises 0.6% in September as Fuel Costs Climb

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said on 4 November 2026 that seasonally adjusted household spending rose 0.6% month on month in September, after a 0.1% decline in August. Spending increased 6.8% from a year earlier in current-price terms, while spending volumes rose 0.7% in the September quarter. Transport and health spending each increased 1.5% month on month. The ABS reported that fuel expenditure rose 5.4%, partly reflecting higher global oil prices and the end of fuel-excise relief in August. These are household spending figures, not retail-sales or inflation-rate estimates.

US DOLLAR / OFFSHORE CHINESE YUANAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR

China Services Growth Slows as October Private PMI Falls to 50.8

China's RatingDog services purchasing managers' index fell to 50.8 in October 2026 from 51.6 in September, marking its slowest expansion since July. The result was below the 51.7 forecast shown by Investing.com's economic calendar. Reuters reported that business confidence weakened as companies faced fierce competition and rising costs. A reading above 50 still indicates expansion rather than contraction. This is a private services-sector survey, separate from China's official October manufacturing PMI and its private manufacturing survey.

New Zealand Unemployment Rises to 5.7% as Employment Falls in Q3

Stats NZ reported on 4 November 2026 that New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in the September quarter, from 5.6% in June. Seasonally adjusted employment fell 0.1% to approximately 2.891 million people, while the employment rate eased to 66.4% from 66.7%. The unemployment rate was above the 5.5% forecast cited in the stats.govt.nz report. Annual wage-rate inflation was 2.1%.

NZDUSDAUDNZD

US Job Openings Hold Near 7.5 Million as Quits Increase in September

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on 3 November 2026 that job openings were little changed at approximately 7.5 million in September. Hires were little changed at 5.4 million and total separations at 5.3 million. Quits increased to about 3.4 million, while layoffs and discharges were broadly unchanged at 1.6 million. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics report quotes a rounded 7.52 million reading against a 7.15 million forecast; this summary uses the official BLS rounded release figures.

DXYEURUSDUS10Y

Federal Reserve & US Economy3 days ago

US Midterm Projections Point to Democratic Control of Congress

US media projections following the 3 November 2026 midterm elections indicate Democrats have won the House and made major Senate gains. Reuters reported House control was projected in the Democrats’ favour; Axios reported a Democratic Senate takeover based on Associated Press projections. Some races were still being counted when the reports appeared. These are media projections rather than certified final congressional results, and reports of market losses cannot by themselves prove the election was the sole catalyst.

DXYUS500NAS100

New Zealand Building Consents Fall 7.9% in September Despite Annual Growth

Stats NZ reported on 3 November 2026 that the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented declined 7.9% in September after a 5.3% increase in August. There were 3,570 new dwellings consented during September. In the year ended September, 41,091 new homes were consented, up 18% from the previous year, while the annual value of non-residential building work consented fell 3.1% to NZ$8.7 billion. The monthly decline and stronger annual count highlight different time horizons; a building consent is not proof that construction has started.

NZDUSDAUDNZD

Federal Reserve & US Economy3 days ago

ECB Official Flags AI Valuations and Sovereign Bonds as Financial Stability Risks

European Central Bank Vice-President Boris Vujcic identified elevated AI equity valuations, government-bond market stress and potential losses at investment funds and other non-bank financial institutions as leading risks to financial stability, according to Reuters reporting on 2 November 2026. He noted that the ECB's forthcoming Financial Stability Review, scheduled for 18 November, was prepared as AI stocks began to correct. Vujcic said fiscal weaknesses should primarily be addressed by governments rather than relying on central-bank intervention. These are official risk assessments, not a newly announced ECB interest-rate decision or emergency market intervention.

EURUSDEU50

Federal Reserve & US Economy3 days ago

US Manufacturing PMI Rises to 55.5 in October, Above Forecasts

The Institute for Supply Management reported on 2 November that its US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October 2026 from 54.5 in September, beating a 54.5 consensus forecast. The reading marked a tenth straight month of expansion in US manufacturing. New orders and production expanded, while the prices-paid index remained elevated at 75.2 despite easing from 77.9. The survey is a diffusion index of reported business conditions, not a direct measurement of manufacturing output or an announced Federal Reserve policy change.

US DOLLAR INDEXGOLD / US DOLLAR

Federal Reserve & US Economy4 days ago

German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop 2.0% in September

German retail sales fell 2.0% month on month in September 2026, according to national statistics reported by Reuters on 2 November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.4% increase. The release points to weaker consumer spending than anticipated and is separate from Germany’s October labour-market report, October inflation release and third-quarter GDP estimate. The published Reuters report did not establish a specific contemporaneous EUR/USD price reaction.

EUR/USDGERMANY 40 INDEX

US DOLLAR INDEXGOLD / US DOLLARUS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD

Fed Officials Push for More Rate Hikes as Logan Calls for Two Increases

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said on 30 October 2026 that the US central bank needs at least two further 25-basis-point interest-rate increases to bring inflation back towards its 2% target. St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem separately said additional tightening would be necessary soon, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also supported further increases. The comments followed the Fed’s 28 October decision to leave its benchmark range at 3.75%–4.00%. These remarks are individual policymakers’ assessments, not an announced FOMC decision to raise rates.

Mexico Q3 GDP Grows 0.9%, Beating Forecasts as Banxico Decision Nears

Mexico’s preliminary third-quarter GDP grew 0.9% quarter on quarter, above the 0.7% Reuters-polled forecast but below the second quarter’s 1.4% increase. Output was up 3.2% from a year earlier, above the 2.5% consensus. Services rose 1.1%, industry 0.8%, while primary activities contracted 0.4%. The figures were released on 30 October 2026.

USD/MXN

US DOLLAR INDEXUS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDGOLD / US DOLLAR

US Employment Costs Rise 0.8% in Q3 as Wage Growth Slows

The US Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on 30 October. Wages and salaries increased 0.7% over the quarter, benefits rose 0.9%, and total compensation was up 3.4% year on year.

EURO / US DOLLAREURO STOXX 50

German Inflation Slows to 2.8% in October as Core Rate Eases

Germany’s preliminary consumer price inflation slowed to 2.8% year on year in October 2026 from 3.3% in September, according to Destatis. Core inflation eased to 2.1%, while energy prices were up 12.2% year on year. The figures are provisional; final data are due on 11 November.

Canada GDP Stalls in August; September Advance Estimate Signals Decline

Statistics Canada reported on 30 October that real GDP by industry was essentially unchanged in August 2026, the second consecutive month without growth. Services output fell 0.1%, while goods-producing industries grew 0.1%. A preliminary estimate indicated a 0.1% decline in September; that figure is not a final GDP release. The agency said available monthly data suggested third-quarter industry GDP expanded 0.3%.

USD/CADCAD/JPY